Friday, 16 November 2018

Is McAfee sweating already? His Bitcoin prediction is now almost 300 days behind

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Remember that famous Bitcoin prediction of John McAfee? Bitcoin at $1 million by 2020 or a certain private part gets eaten on national television? Well, after this week's Bitcoin crash, things are not looking very promising for McAfee right now.

The crypto enthusiast first predicted Bitcoin to reach $500K in 2020, stating that he will 'eat his dick on national television' if that doesn't happen.


In November 2017, four months after his first bet, McAfee took it a step further and predicted Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020, adding that 'I will still eat my dick if wrong'.


When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bircoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong.


McAfee had every reason to be confident at that time. On November 29 2017, the day of his $1 million predicition, Bitcoin was trading 128% above the average trend line leading to $1 million by the end of 2020. A handy McAfee predictor tool keeping track of the progress, Bircoin.top, explaines that 'Bitcoin needs to grow at a rate of 0.484095526 % per day from 2017-07-17 to 2020-12-31 to get from $ 2,244.27 (price on the day of his first prediction) to $ 1,000,000.00'. 


At the all time high of Bitcoin, mid-December 2017, Bitcoin's price was 314% above the red line, and 296 days ahead of the growth that is needed for McAfee's prediction to come true. 
298 days behind


Things are looking different these days. With Bitcoin's price dropping from close to $20K to the current levels of $5.5K, McAfee is losing sight of the average trend line going towards the $1 million. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is 76,3% below and 298 days of average growth behind the red line. Bitcoin should have been $23,520.75 at this point to be on schedule. 
'
I cannot loose the bet'


McAfee, however, doesn't seem to be worried at all. On Thursday, he posted on Twitter that 'we are still on schedule to get to $1 million by 2020'. 'I cannot lose the bet. It is mathematically impossible. What you have been seeing is short term (< 18 months) nonsense. Ignore it and look at fundamentals.'

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